… This Is What A One Point Lead Looks Like

” The poll finds Romney with a 49% to 48% lead in a survey of 1,382 likely voters. But doesn’t something look wrong?

If both Obama and Romney are attracting the same split of their parties voters, what’s the deal with Romney’s 9% lead among Independents? Wouldn’t that account for more that an 1% lead?

It would if the results weren’t skewed toward Independents, and away from Republicans.

So this poll is assuming Democrats hold a +5 advantage over Republicans. The problem is that while the 34% number for Democrats sounds about right, the number for Republican’s is laughable. Look at Rasmussen’s most recent party affiliation survey:

September 2012
Republican 36.8%
Democrat 34.2%
Other 29.0%

To get to their 49% Romney, 48% Obama total they have Independents 6% higher (assuming they lumped Other into that total) than Rasmussen and Republicans over 7% lower.”

 

 

Cartoon By Michael Ramirez