The Latest Wargaming Projections For November

 

 

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” The short version: Since last month’s Wargaming column, almost all the movement has been to the right.

  The slightly longer version is that there are three factors in play here, none good for Harry Reid keeping his majority leader position, and time is running out to find honest ways of countering those factors.

  The only outlier according to RCP’s poll averaging is that open Michigan race between Democratic Congressman Gary Peters and former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Despite Land’s experience with running a competitive statewide campaign, Peters consistently polls ahead of her in the last three weeks by an average of 5.4 points, forcing RCP to move that race from the Toss Up column to Leans Dem. You might assume that such a large lead would make Peters a shoe in, but his highest poll number to date, and that one comes from the left-leaning Detroit News, is only 47%. Every other poll shows him in the low-to-mid 40s. As the representative of the incumbent party in the Senate, those numbers aren’t very comforting. There are still a lot of undecideds in Michigan — which brings us to the first factor working against the Democrats as we enter the final weeks. 

Undecideds.

Tom Dougherty from Practical Politicking writes:

  Once inside six weeks until Election Day, we historically expect one-out-of-four “undecideds” to go with the incumbent, one to stay home and not vote, and two to go to the challenger. Though with the strong anti-incumbent attitude among likely voters this year, those numbers could even be more favorable for the Republican challengers in some states.

  The net effect is to push the Republican challengers in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana to leads outside the margin of error. In Colorado, Cory Gardner gains a slight advantage in an otherwise very close race. And in North Carolina and New Hampshire, Thom Tillis and Scott Brown climb into virtual dead-heats.”

 

Stephen Green at PJMedia has much more