Tag Archive: GOP Chances


Where Obama Could Lose it All: Senate Races To Watch

 

 

 

 

 

” With two months until mid-term congressional elections, President Barack Obama’s Democrats face increasingly long odds of maintaining control of the US Senate. Republicans must gain six seats to take over, and many analysts say that goal is within reach.

  Far more Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans this cycle, including four struggling to keep their seats in crucial swing states that Obama lost when he was re-elected in 2012.

  But Republicans are hardly united in their tactics, as evidenced by pressure from core conservatives threatening a government shutdown over immigration policy — tactics experts warn could backfire.

  Nevertheless, the wind is at Republicans’ backs in this mid-term election, which traditionally favors the opposition party in year six of a presidency, as this is.

  Republicans are predicted to maintain control of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are being contested. Democrats are struggling to hang on in the 100-member Senate, where 36 seats are up for grabs.

  Below is a list of key Senate races in November’s election and issues to watch as the parties battle for congressional supremacy. “

 

See the list at NewsMax

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This Year’s Political Environment Is Shaping Up To Be Nearly As Bleak As 2010, And That’s Ominous News For Senate Democrats.

 

 

 

 

” When writing about politics, it’s all too frequent to use terminology that often obscures more than elucidates. That’s especially true when it comes to the word “wave”—shorthand for a landslide victory for the winning party. I’ve argued before that the likelihood of 2014 being a wave election has been rising, given the president’s consistently low approval ratings and the fact that Republicans are running evenly on the generic ballot (which usually translates into a clear GOP edge) and that the right-track/wrong-track numbers are near historic lows. All these big-picture signs are ominous for the party in power.

  But this week, The New York Times‘ Nate Cohn argued that the threat of a Republican wave is subsiding, thanks to red-state Senate Democrats remaining resilient and the declining risk of blue-state seats—such as those in Oregon and Virginia—flipping in a landslide. This, despite the various political forecasters and Senate models (including the NYT‘s own Upshot) showing the likelihood of a Republican takeover increasing over time, with more states emerging in play.

What gives?

  To be fair, a lot of the disagreement stems from semantics—the definition of the word “wave.” Cohn argues that if Republicans merely sweep red-state Democratic seats and perhaps pick off a stray swing seat, it’s not a wave election—even if Republicans net seven seats on their way to the majority. To accomplish that feat, Republicans would need to oust four sitting Democratic senators. Over the last decade, Republicans have defeated only three sitting senators (Tom Daschle in South Dakota, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas). Surely, a red-state sweep would signify the conclusion of a political shake-up in the South, where voters are so disgusted with the national Democratic Party that they’re willing to throw out senators who had previously relied on split-ticket voters to win. If a Republican takeover by picking up seven Senate seats isn’t a wave, it’s awfully close.”