Tag Archive: Quantitative Easing


Ten Warning Signs Of A Market Crash In 2015

 

 

 

 

 

” The FTSE 100 slid on the first day of trading in 2015. Here are 10 warning signs that the markets may drop further.

Vix fear gauge

  For five years, investor fear of risk has been drugged into somnolence by repeated injections of quantitative easing. The lack of fear has led to a world where price and risk have become estranged. As credit conditions are tightened in the US and China, the law of unintended consequences will hold sway in 2015 as investors wake up. The Vix, the so-called “fear index” that measures volatility, spiked to 18.4 on Friday, above the average of 14.5 recorded last year.

Rising US Treasury yields

  With the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, and the latest QE3 bond-buying programme ending in October last year, credit markets are expecting a poor year for US Treasuries. The yield on two-year US Treasuries has more than doubled from 0.31pc to 0.74pc since October.”

 

Read the rest at The Telegraph , if you dare

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whatever Happened To Inflation?

 

 

 

 

” Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has been trying to stave off economic disaster with an unconventional monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing. By buying financial assets from commercial banks and other institutions, the Fed has massively expanded the money supply-quadrupling it since the practice began.

  Many economists, particularly followers of the Austrian school, deplored the practice and predicted that the unprecedented currency and asset price manipulation would lead to huge and damaging price inflation. Reason was among them, declaring on our October 2009 cover: “Inflation Returns!” A group of free market economists were asked: “Has the time come to stockpile canned goods and pick up a wheelbarrow for transporting currency, or should we be afraid of the opposite-a prolonged contraction that causes prices to crash?”

  Six years later, official consumer price index inflation sits at just 2 percent annually from July 2013 to July 2014, the latest period for which figures are available. This is identical to the rate for the previous year.

  We asked four economists and market analysts to revisit what they originally predicted would happen after quantitative easing and assess whether (and why) they were right. Analyst Peter Schiff sticks to his guns, saying that any “claims of victory over inflation are premature and inaccurate. Inflation is easy to see in our current economy, if you make a genuine attempt to measure it.” Economist Robert Murphy believes we are in a “calm before the storm” and is “confident that a day of price inflation reckoning looms.” Contributing Editor David R. Henderson writes that the “financial crisis has brought such major changes in central banking that uncontrolled inflation from discretionary monetary policy is not as great a danger as it once was,” though he remains critical of the Fed’s growing powers. And economist Scott Sumner claims victory for the “market monetarists,” noting that both Austrians and Keynesians have been proven wrong by events, and urging both sides to “take markets seriously.” “

 

Reason has more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Video 10.20.14

The Fed Lays A Foundation For The Next Round Of QE

 

 

 

 

Published on Oct 10, 2014

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Who Benefits From The Fed?

 

Fed Assets 1915-2012

 

 

 

” In this article I want to point out who has benefited from the Fed’s operations over the past year.

There has been a lot of discussion about the large increase in reserves, and especially excess reserves, held by the banking system. Mostly this discussion is couched in terms of the increase in the money supply. While the increase in excess reserves—less than $2bn in August 2008 to almost $1.5 trillion at the end of 2012—does represent an increase in the money supply, some rule changes accompanying the crisis also signify that they are part of a bailout. One aspect of the Fed’s crisis response was to commence paying interest on required and excess reserve balances. (The required reserve is the amount of money banks must hold to meet the minimum reserve requirement on deposits, and excess reserves are any amount held in excess of this minimum.)

 

As we review the Fed’s operations in 2012 we see the usual outcomes. The banking sector has benefited from its operations (unusually so, thanks to the continued interest on reserve policy) and the government has received a free lunch by having a ready buyer for its ever-increasing debt, especially long-term debt, which might otherwise be susceptible to inflationary pressures increasing its interest yield. Let’s see what surprises the Fed has in store for us in 2013.”

The Missing Element

   “The one missing element in the news stories just put up in respect of the quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is the comment issued by the one of the individuals who sits directly above Chairman Bernanke in the constitutional pecking order. This is the chairman of the House subcommittee on domestic monetary policy, Ron Paul. He’s none too pleased with the direction in which the Fed is going. “The Fed’s only solution for every problem is to print more money and provide more liquidity,” Dr. Paul said in a statement today. “Mr. Bernanke and Fed governors appear not to understand that our current economic malaise resulted directly because of the excessive credit the Fed already pumped into the system.” “

  Things to come ?

” So the Bernanke Put is a lie. The markets will be realizing this in the coming months if not sooner. When they do, we’ll see the REAL
Collapse: the one to which 2008 was just a warm-up. “