Tag Archive: Republican Chances


Dick Morris: GOP Leads In 7 Senate Races; McConnell In Trouble

 

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” Republican Senate candidates now lead their rivals in seven contests, including three involving Democratic incumbents. Republicans need to win six seats to gain control of the Senate.

  For an eighth seat, the Republican is tied with a Democratic incumbent. And, in a ninth contest, the GOP candidate trails the Democratic incumbent by only two points.

 In the following seven races — all in seats now held by Democrats — the Republican has a lead.

(* means Republican faces significant primary)

Republicans lead in seven


Michigan

Terri Lynn Land (R) 40
Gary Peters (D) 38

(Open seat; Carl Levin retired; amazing run for a Republican in deeply blue state)

North Carolina

Thom Tillis (R) 46*
Kay Hagan (D) 45

(Tillis leads in tough primary; Hagan well under 50% of the vote)

Alaska

Mead Treadwell (R) 47*
Mark Begich (D) 43

(Treadwell faces tough primary but Begish is way behind and further under 50 percent)

Montana

Steve Daines (R) 51
John Walsh (D) 37

(Open seat; it’s over)

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy (R) 46
Mary Landrieu (D) 42

(Landrieu way under 50 percent)

South Dakota

Mike Rounds (R) 51
Rick Weiland (D) 31

(Open seat; it’s over)

West Virginia

Shelley Moore Capito (R) 49
Natalie Tennant (D) 35

(Open seat; it’s over)

Republican tied in one

Arkansas

Tom Cotton (R) 46
Mark Pryor (D) 46

(Pryor is under 50 percent)

Republican close in three

Iowa

Mark Jacobs (R) 38*
Bruce Braley (D) 41

(Open seat; Jacobs still faces tough primary, but possible pickup)

Colorado

Cory Gardner (R) 40
Mark Udall (D) 42

(Udall way under 50 percent)

Minnesota

Julianne Ortman (R) 41*
Al Franken (D) 44

(Franken way under 50 percent)

One possible Democrat takeaway

Kentucky

Mitch McConnell (R) 43
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42

(McConnell way under 50 percent)”

Read the rest of Morris’ analysis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right-Wing Candidates Can Take The Red States, But In 2014 That Won’t Be Enough

 

 

 

 

” Senate Republicans won’t lack bull’s-eyes next year. They can target seven Democratic seats in red states, two of which will be open races—West Virginia and, if Sen. Tim Johnson retires as expected, South Dakota. And except for North Carolina, each is a dark blush of red; Mitt Romney won them all by more than 10 points. The lineup should give Mitch McConnell plenty of pickups.

But they might not be enough. Assuming that Democrats win this year’s special election in Massachusetts, Republicans will have to win a near-perfect six of these seven races to take the majority. That’s a tough challenge: The party has never managed to defeat more than three Democratic incumbents in any of the past five elections. If Republicans want to control the Senate in 2015, they will need to move beyond the obvious targets.

It’s a goal the National Republican Senatorial Committee is vowing to achieve, and there’s reason to think it can be successful. Blue and purple states such as Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are also on next year’s Senate map. They lean left and have an incumbent, but in a midterm election they won’t be automatic keepers for Democrats. Older, white voters constitute a greater share of the electorate in midterms than in presidential years. White voters were 72 percent of the electorate in last year’s presidential race but 77 percent in the 2010 midterms, according to exit polls. In this cycle, the electorate will likely be more diverse than in 2010 but less than in 2012.”