Tag Archive: Senate Control


AP-GfK Poll: Most Expect GOP Victory In November

 

 

Graphic shows results of AP-GfK poll on voter attitudes; …

 

 

” Two weeks before Election Day, most of the nation’s likely voters now expect the Republican Party to take control of the U.S. Senate, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. And by a growing margin, they say that’s the outcome they’d like to see.

  Among all adults, 38 percent say they’d like the Democrats to wind up in control of Congress, to 36 percent for the Republicans. But the GOP holds a significant lead among those most likely to cast ballots: 47 percent of these voters favor a Republican controlled-Congress, 39 percent a Democratic one. That’s a shift in the GOP’s favor since an AP-GfK poll in late September, when the two parties ran about evenly among likely voters.

  Women have moved in the GOP’s direction since September. In last month’s AP-GfK poll, 47 percent of female likely voters said they favored a Democratic-controlled Congress while 40 percent wanted the Republicans to capture control. In the new poll, the two parties are about even among women, 44 percent prefer the Republicans, 42 percent the Democrats.”

 

Read more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Latest Wargaming Projections For November

 

 

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” The short version: Since last month’s Wargaming column, almost all the movement has been to the right.

  The slightly longer version is that there are three factors in play here, none good for Harry Reid keeping his majority leader position, and time is running out to find honest ways of countering those factors.

  The only outlier according to RCP’s poll averaging is that open Michigan race between Democratic Congressman Gary Peters and former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Despite Land’s experience with running a competitive statewide campaign, Peters consistently polls ahead of her in the last three weeks by an average of 5.4 points, forcing RCP to move that race from the Toss Up column to Leans Dem. You might assume that such a large lead would make Peters a shoe in, but his highest poll number to date, and that one comes from the left-leaning Detroit News, is only 47%. Every other poll shows him in the low-to-mid 40s. As the representative of the incumbent party in the Senate, those numbers aren’t very comforting. There are still a lot of undecideds in Michigan — which brings us to the first factor working against the Democrats as we enter the final weeks. 

Undecideds.

Tom Dougherty from Practical Politicking writes:

  Once inside six weeks until Election Day, we historically expect one-out-of-four “undecideds” to go with the incumbent, one to stay home and not vote, and two to go to the challenger. Though with the strong anti-incumbent attitude among likely voters this year, those numbers could even be more favorable for the Republican challengers in some states.

  The net effect is to push the Republican challengers in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana to leads outside the margin of error. In Colorado, Cory Gardner gains a slight advantage in an otherwise very close race. And in North Carolina and New Hampshire, Thom Tillis and Scott Brown climb into virtual dead-heats.”

 

Stephen Green at PJMedia has much more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats Now Have A 51 Percent Chance Of Holding The Senate

 

 

 

 

 

” Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post’s statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

  Election Lab puts Democrats’ chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University’s John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans’ defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things: “

 

See the “three big things” here

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NY Democrats Seek Citizen Rights For Illegal Immigrants

Illegal aliens in New York could score billions in Medicaid and college-tuition money — along with driver’s licenses, voting rights and even the ability to run for office — if Democrats win control of the state Senate in November, the Post has learned.

  A little-known bill, dubbed “New York is Home,” would offer the most sweeping amnesty available anywhere in the country to nearly 3 million noncitizens living in the Empire State.

  It would bar police from releasing any information about them to the feds, unless it involves a criminal warrant unrelated to their immigration status.

  Under the proposed legislation, undocumented immigrants could also apply for professional licenses and serve on juries.

  The plan hinges on Democrats — who now control both the governorship and the state Assembly — wresting control of the Senate from Republicans, who oppose immigration amnesty.”

From the text of the bill itself here is it’s stated purpose:

” PURPOSE: To establish New York State citizenship, regardless of immigration status, and providing certain rights and benefits to persons with such citizenship. “

   As usual the co-sponsors of this proposed piece of legislation have absolutely no idea of the monetary implications to the taxpayers of the state they are sworn to represent . Buried at the very bottom of the bill is this important tidbit of information :

FISCAL IMPLICATIONS: To be determined

  LOCAL FISCAL IMPLICATIONS: To be determined. “

   Read the whole bill . It is not overly long , nor is it filled with an excess of legalese . The implications are plain for all to see .

    Vote buying and pandering pure and simple … all to be paid for by the sweat and toil of the very people these shameful politicians are supposed to be representing . Read more at the NY Post

Trouble For Democrats: More Senate Seats Are At Risk

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” Democrats are finding that their path to keeping control of the U.S. Senate this year is getting bumpier.

  At least four states where Democrats hold Senate seats that once were seen as fairly safe are now considered in play: Michigan, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire.

  They join seven states with Democratic incumbents where analysts see decent bets for Republican pickups: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried all seven in 2012.

  The new four are now battlegrounds for the same reasons that plague Democrats elsewhere. The Affordable Care Act is detested in many circles. Anyone associated with Washington is often toxic. And popular Republicans who are running for other offices are often on the ballot.”

 

Read on

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dick Morris: GOP Leads In 7 Senate Races; McConnell In Trouble

 

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” Republican Senate candidates now lead their rivals in seven contests, including three involving Democratic incumbents. Republicans need to win six seats to gain control of the Senate.

  For an eighth seat, the Republican is tied with a Democratic incumbent. And, in a ninth contest, the GOP candidate trails the Democratic incumbent by only two points.

 In the following seven races — all in seats now held by Democrats — the Republican has a lead.

(* means Republican faces significant primary)

Republicans lead in seven


Michigan

Terri Lynn Land (R) 40
Gary Peters (D) 38

(Open seat; Carl Levin retired; amazing run for a Republican in deeply blue state)

North Carolina

Thom Tillis (R) 46*
Kay Hagan (D) 45

(Tillis leads in tough primary; Hagan well under 50% of the vote)

Alaska

Mead Treadwell (R) 47*
Mark Begich (D) 43

(Treadwell faces tough primary but Begish is way behind and further under 50 percent)

Montana

Steve Daines (R) 51
John Walsh (D) 37

(Open seat; it’s over)

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy (R) 46
Mary Landrieu (D) 42

(Landrieu way under 50 percent)

South Dakota

Mike Rounds (R) 51
Rick Weiland (D) 31

(Open seat; it’s over)

West Virginia

Shelley Moore Capito (R) 49
Natalie Tennant (D) 35

(Open seat; it’s over)

Republican tied in one

Arkansas

Tom Cotton (R) 46
Mark Pryor (D) 46

(Pryor is under 50 percent)

Republican close in three

Iowa

Mark Jacobs (R) 38*
Bruce Braley (D) 41

(Open seat; Jacobs still faces tough primary, but possible pickup)

Colorado

Cory Gardner (R) 40
Mark Udall (D) 42

(Udall way under 50 percent)

Minnesota

Julianne Ortman (R) 41*
Al Franken (D) 44

(Franken way under 50 percent)

One possible Democrat takeaway

Kentucky

Mitch McConnell (R) 43
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42

(McConnell way under 50 percent)”

Read the rest of Morris’ analysis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Strange Revival Of Republican America

 

 

 

” For years people have predicted the Republican party’s demise. The decline of whites as a share of the US population and the spread of tolerant values, such as support for gay marriage, would gradually snuff out its appeal. Yet the Grand Old Party has a stubborn way of bouncing back. The coming midterm elections in November are unlikely to be an exception, while the Republican field for the next presidential election looks stronger than at any time since 2000. Tomorrow may indeed arrive at some point. But for the time being, today is going pretty well for the Republicans.

  Take the fast-approaching congressional elections. President Barack Obama is giving everything he has in terms of fundraising to retain Democratic control of the Senate. The remainder of his presidency depends on it. Even diehard optimists doubt Democrats could regain control of the House. Yet the more Mr Obama throws at the Senate, the lower his poll numbers fall. Last week he hit a new low of 41 per cent approval versus 54 per cent disapproval. History says an unpopular president’s party loses ground in midterm elections. This year is unlikely to buck the trend.”

 

     Financial Times has a lengthy piece on GOP chances for the upcoming 2014 midterms and while the article is every bit as condescending as it’s title would suggest there remains much truth that even their writer’s bias cannot hide .

 

 

 

 

 

 

Senate Within GOP Reach

Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup

” This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber.

The G.O.P.’s task will not be easy: the party holds 46 seats in the Senate, and the number will very probably be cut to 45 after a special election in New Jersey later this year. That means that they would need to win a net of six contests from Democrats in order to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s tiebreaking vote. Two years ago at this time, Republicans faced what seemed to be a promising environment and could have won the Senate by gaining a net of three seats from Democrats and winning the presidency. Instead, Mitt Romney lost to President Obama, and the G.O.P. lost a net of two Senate seats. ”

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Posted by John Galt