Tag Archive: Senate Majority


The Latest Wargaming Projections For November

 

 

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” The short version: Since last month’s Wargaming column, almost all the movement has been to the right.

  The slightly longer version is that there are three factors in play here, none good for Harry Reid keeping his majority leader position, and time is running out to find honest ways of countering those factors.

  The only outlier according to RCP’s poll averaging is that open Michigan race between Democratic Congressman Gary Peters and former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Despite Land’s experience with running a competitive statewide campaign, Peters consistently polls ahead of her in the last three weeks by an average of 5.4 points, forcing RCP to move that race from the Toss Up column to Leans Dem. You might assume that such a large lead would make Peters a shoe in, but his highest poll number to date, and that one comes from the left-leaning Detroit News, is only 47%. Every other poll shows him in the low-to-mid 40s. As the representative of the incumbent party in the Senate, those numbers aren’t very comforting. There are still a lot of undecideds in Michigan — which brings us to the first factor working against the Democrats as we enter the final weeks. 

Undecideds.

Tom Dougherty from Practical Politicking writes:

  Once inside six weeks until Election Day, we historically expect one-out-of-four “undecideds” to go with the incumbent, one to stay home and not vote, and two to go to the challenger. Though with the strong anti-incumbent attitude among likely voters this year, those numbers could even be more favorable for the Republican challengers in some states.

  The net effect is to push the Republican challengers in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana to leads outside the margin of error. In Colorado, Cory Gardner gains a slight advantage in an otherwise very close race. And in North Carolina and New Hampshire, Thom Tillis and Scott Brown climb into virtual dead-heats.”

 

Stephen Green at PJMedia has much more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where Obama Could Lose it All: Senate Races To Watch

 

 

 

 

 

” With two months until mid-term congressional elections, President Barack Obama’s Democrats face increasingly long odds of maintaining control of the US Senate. Republicans must gain six seats to take over, and many analysts say that goal is within reach.

  Far more Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans this cycle, including four struggling to keep their seats in crucial swing states that Obama lost when he was re-elected in 2012.

  But Republicans are hardly united in their tactics, as evidenced by pressure from core conservatives threatening a government shutdown over immigration policy — tactics experts warn could backfire.

  Nevertheless, the wind is at Republicans’ backs in this mid-term election, which traditionally favors the opposition party in year six of a presidency, as this is.

  Republicans are predicted to maintain control of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are being contested. Democrats are struggling to hang on in the 100-member Senate, where 36 seats are up for grabs.

  Below is a list of key Senate races in November’s election and issues to watch as the parties battle for congressional supremacy. “

 

See the list at NewsMax

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will There Be A GOP Wave In The Senate—Or A Wipeout?

 

 

 

” So where’s the wave? This is President Obama’s sixth-year-itch election. The map of states with contested Senate seats could hardly be better from the Republicans’ vantage point. And the breaks this year—strong candidates, avoidance of damaging gaffes, issues such as Obamacare and immigration that stir the party base—have mainly gone the GOP’s way, very unlike 2012.

  Nonetheless, the midterms are far from over. In every single one of the Crystal Ball’s toss-up states, (Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina), the Republican Senate candidate has not yet opened up a real polling lead in any of them. Democratic nominees have been running hard and staying slightly ahead, or close to, their Republican foes.

  Earlier this year, we published a “wave chart” giving the range of Senate election outcomes, from ripple to tsunami. Sometimes tidal waves, such as the 2006 Democratic swell that gave the party control of both houses of Congress, develop in late September or October. That’s certainly still a possibility for the GOP in 2014. However, the summer is waning, and as Labor Day approaches our estimate remains a Republican gain of four to eight seats, with the probability greatest for six or seven seats—just enough to put Republicans in charge of Congress’ upper chamber. The lowest GOP advance would fall two seats short of outright control; the largest would produce a 53-47 Republican Senate. “

 

Read more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soros, Steyer Spend Big In Bid To Rescue Democrats’ Majority

 

 

 

 

” Super PACs spent July beefing up for the fall campaign. Many groups filed new disclosure reports this week, leaving a paper trail littered with big checks from big names.

  Democrats dominate the list of notable July donors, as there have simply been more Democratic dollars flowing to that type of outside group this year. There’s still plenty of conservative money out there; it’s just that more of it is going toward nonprofits, which don’t have to disclose their donors. Here are a handful of July super PAC donations that stood out.

  STEYER: Climate-change activist Tom Steyer gave the biggest super PAC donation in this month’s reports: $7.5 million to his own group, NextGen Climate. Steyer, who made his fortune as a successful hedge-fund manager, also spread some of that money around. NextGen gave a half-million dollars to Senate Majority PAC, the biggest Senate Democratic super PAC, and $150,000 to the League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund, another environmental group.

  BLOOMBERG: Michael Bloomberg is staying plenty active in his post-mayoral days. Aside from funding his gun-control-focused super PAC, Bloomberg has written checks to Senate Majority PAC and super PACs that backed GOP Sens. Thad Cochran and Lindsey Graham during their primary battles. Most recently, the former New York City mayor donated $2 million to Women Vote!—the largest contribution the EMILY’s List super PAC has ever received. Only Steyer has given more money to super PACs this election season.

  SOROS: Democratic financier George Soros’s checkbook has been active this summer: The prolific donor gave $500,000 apiece to House Majority PAC and the League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund. But that million dollars wasn’t his family’s only big outlay so far this summer. Soros’s daughter, Andrea Soros Colombel, gave $250,000 to Planned Parenthood Votes.

  SINGER: Hedge-fund manager Paul Singer is the top super PAC donor on the Republican side so far this election cycle, and he kept the money flowing last month. The Elliott Management founder dished out $750,000 to the conservative super PAC Ending Spending Action Fund, which has spent a total of nearly $4.5 million in five different races in 2014. Singer also gave $100,000 to the GOP’s best-known spending juggernaut, American Crossroads. Singer has now contributed a total of $1.4 million to Ending Spending and $1.35 million to Crossroads this cycle.

  MOSTYN: Amber Mostyn is half of Texas’s biggest Democratic power couple. The Houston lawyer and her husband Steve were among Democrats’ biggest super PAC donors in 2012, when the The New York Times Magazine used the story of the Mostyns’ $1 million gift to Priorities USA Action to explain the role and rise of the pro-Obama super PAC. In July, Amber Mostyn gave $250,000 to the Planned Parenthood super PAC, matching the quarter-million she gave the committee in 2013.

  BERGMAN: After giving $1 million to American Crossroads in 2012, Jay Bergman, the owner of Illinois-based Petco Petroleum, remained relatively quiet on the outside-money front. But In July, he ponied up to Crossroads again, cutting a $500,000 check to the super PAC. Bergman gives mostly to Republicans. But he casts himself as an “independent,” and he’s contributed to Illinois Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn and his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich, in the past.

  SABAN: Billionaire Univision owner Haim Saban has already pledged his “full might” to Hillary Clinton if she runs for president in 2016, but he’s keeping busy in the meantime. Saban gave $250,000 to Senate Majority PAC in July.

  SCHMIDT: Another $250,000 donation came to Senate Majority PAC via Google Chairman Eric Schmidt. Unlike most of the donors on this list, Schmidt eschewed super PACs in 2012, but this is his second major contribution of 2014. Back in June, Schmidt gave $100,000 to the super PAC formed to support Democratic Sen. Mark Warner’s reelection in Virginia this year.

 ANGELOS: Other Democratic donors may have given more money than the $100,000 Senate Majority PAC got from the Law Offices of Peter Angelos. But few other donors have jobs as cool. When he’s not financing Democratic super PACs, Angelos can be found bankrolling free agent signings as the owner of the Baltimore Orioles.

  OTHER PACS: Some of the biggest donations made in July went from one PAC to another. In addition to the donations Steyer’s group made, Senate Majority PAC also contributed $350,000 to the League of Conservation Voters super PAC last month. And two of the biggest donations to House Majority PAC came from the Blue Dog PAC and the New Democrat Coalition PAC, two groups representing moderate or conservative House Democrats. They combined to give $350,000 to House Majority PAC.”

 

Party of the “little people” indeed …

 

Thanks to National Journal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This Year’s Political Environment Is Shaping Up To Be Nearly As Bleak As 2010, And That’s Ominous News For Senate Democrats.

 

 

 

 

” When writing about politics, it’s all too frequent to use terminology that often obscures more than elucidates. That’s especially true when it comes to the word “wave”—shorthand for a landslide victory for the winning party. I’ve argued before that the likelihood of 2014 being a wave election has been rising, given the president’s consistently low approval ratings and the fact that Republicans are running evenly on the generic ballot (which usually translates into a clear GOP edge) and that the right-track/wrong-track numbers are near historic lows. All these big-picture signs are ominous for the party in power.

  But this week, The New York Times‘ Nate Cohn argued that the threat of a Republican wave is subsiding, thanks to red-state Senate Democrats remaining resilient and the declining risk of blue-state seats—such as those in Oregon and Virginia—flipping in a landslide. This, despite the various political forecasters and Senate models (including the NYT‘s own Upshot) showing the likelihood of a Republican takeover increasing over time, with more states emerging in play.

What gives?

  To be fair, a lot of the disagreement stems from semantics—the definition of the word “wave.” Cohn argues that if Republicans merely sweep red-state Democratic seats and perhaps pick off a stray swing seat, it’s not a wave election—even if Republicans net seven seats on their way to the majority. To accomplish that feat, Republicans would need to oust four sitting Democratic senators. Over the last decade, Republicans have defeated only three sitting senators (Tom Daschle in South Dakota, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas). Surely, a red-state sweep would signify the conclusion of a political shake-up in the South, where voters are so disgusted with the national Democratic Party that they’re willing to throw out senators who had previously relied on split-ticket voters to win. If a Republican takeover by picking up seven Senate seats isn’t a wave, it’s awfully close.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right-Wing Candidates Can Take The Red States, But In 2014 That Won’t Be Enough

 

 

 

 

” Senate Republicans won’t lack bull’s-eyes next year. They can target seven Democratic seats in red states, two of which will be open races—West Virginia and, if Sen. Tim Johnson retires as expected, South Dakota. And except for North Carolina, each is a dark blush of red; Mitt Romney won them all by more than 10 points. The lineup should give Mitch McConnell plenty of pickups.

But they might not be enough. Assuming that Democrats win this year’s special election in Massachusetts, Republicans will have to win a near-perfect six of these seven races to take the majority. That’s a tough challenge: The party has never managed to defeat more than three Democratic incumbents in any of the past five elections. If Republicans want to control the Senate in 2015, they will need to move beyond the obvious targets.

It’s a goal the National Republican Senatorial Committee is vowing to achieve, and there’s reason to think it can be successful. Blue and purple states such as Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are also on next year’s Senate map. They lean left and have an incumbent, but in a midterm election they won’t be automatic keepers for Democrats. Older, white voters constitute a greater share of the electorate in midterms than in presidential years. White voters were 72 percent of the electorate in last year’s presidential race but 77 percent in the 2010 midterms, according to exit polls. In this cycle, the electorate will likely be more diverse than in 2010 but less than in 2012.”